Southeast Asia was never a natural candidate to act as a single region. It has 11 nations, more than 1,200 languages, and 17,000 islands in one country alone (Indonesia), remarkable more for its heterogeneity than unity. But as global trade and FDI ride a wave of strategic hedging, ASEAN has a rare and narrow window of opportunity, Milken Institute Asia Chairman Robin Hu writes for the Hinrich Foundation.
Trade’s freedom is being tested with Trump’s latest napkin deals and edicts, which only reinforce the message that practices taken for granted in the past will be unevenly and potentially painfully adjusted. While many had hoped for clarity, the only thing clear today is that trade uncertainty is set to continue, Head of Trade Policy Deborah Elms writes.
Napkin deals and trade edicts: The only certainty in global trade is uncertainty
Deborah Elms 8 August 2025
Trump’s strategy of “divide and conquer” has driven outcomes in his second attempt at Liberation Day that appear more favorable than his first try in April. However, his expansionist use of tariffs as a tool for all manner of problems is increasingly likely to drive more coordination among other governments against Washington. Trump’s latest napkin deals and edicts only reinforce the message that practices taken for granted in the past will be unevenly and potentially painfully adjusted, Head of Trade Policy Deborah Elms writes.
ASEAN faces a historic window – but must act as one
Robin Hu 8 August 2025
ASEAN has a rare and narrow opportunity. As fragmentation shakes the world, Southeast Asia is emerging as a draw for serious capital as an open, neutral, and connected region that offers something investors now prize above all: trust, optionality, and relative stability. “What is missing is not demand, but cohesion and scale,” Robin Hu, Asia Chairman of the Milken Institute and Temasek’s Advisor Senior Director, writes in an essay for the Hinrich Foundation. “ASEAN must now demonstrate whether it can move from promise to performance before this historic window narrows.”
The Hinrich Foundation and the Asia-Pacific Foundation of Canada hosted Canada’s former Trade Minister Mary Ng to a private roundtable with ambassadors, senior officials, Singapore's trade ministry, businesses from key Asia-Pacific partners, and APEC. The subject: global trade fragmentation and what like-minded trading partners can do about it. Catch up on some snaps here.
The Hinrich Foundation will be hosting an in-person discussion organized by the Foreign Correspondents Association Singapore on 13 August to examine Trump’s tariffs for Asia. Featuring Deborah Elms, Head of Trade Policy at the Hinrich Foundation, and Steve Okun, Founder and CEO of APAC Advisors, this session will delve into the origins, mechanics, and regional impact of Trump’s trade policy. Secure your seat today.
Australia’s rare earths lie between economic security and liberal markets
China holds a near-monopoly over the rare earth elements (REE) supply chain, leveraging its processing capabilities and state-backed strategy for geoeconomic advantage. In response, countries like Australia, the US, and the EU are pursuing industrial policies, strategic funding, and partnerships to secure REE supply chains. Read more in this discussion guide based on a paper by Naoise McDonagh from Edith Cowan University.
Amazon and Hinrich Foundation Dialogue: Bridging Trade and Technology in APAC
Amazon and the Hinrich Foundation are co-organizing a dialogue on 13 August, 2 pm to 6 pm, to explore how the Asia-Pacific can and must accelerate digital transformation as shifting geopolitical tides intertwine with trade and technology changes. Among the topics are ASEAN's cross-border payment system, ASEAN DEFA, interoperable payment infrastructure, and a proposed digital Regulatory Impact Assessment for the region. The session will be held at the AWS Asia-Pacific Hub. Limited places are available.
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