Over the weekend, President Trump has taken steps to end de minimis for China. The trouble with the exemption, which allows imports of up to US$800 in retail value to enter the country duty-free, is that it had become a loophole for unchecked drug trafficking and illegal e-commerce aggregation, Merle Hinrich writes. In late September, China’s central bank announced its biggest stimulus package since the pandemic: More than US$140 billion in money for new loans, tens of billions of dollars more for state firms to buy back unsold homes, deep cuts in its reverse repo and loan prime rates. It was meant to be shock and awe. Markets rallied briefly and then, in what is by now routine, didn't. The message from investors was clear: We have been here before, and we are not seeing anything new. Stewart Paterson probes the depth of China’s economic crisis and finds it teetering ever closer to a “lost decade”. Transshipment ports don’t have it easy these days. They are increasingly under pressure as the US-China contest means tit-for-tat trade controls. Eugene Lim writes on what transshipment hubs, of which Singapore is the world’s largest, need to know to avoid finding themselves caught in the crossfire. Plus, here’s how to use our Sustainable Trade Index, a photo recap of our roundtable with BritCham, and don’t forget to register for our Trade Outlook 2025 event.
OP-ED
Why de minimis reform is critical for global trade
Merle A. Hinrich 4 February 2025
Over the weekend, President Trump has taken steps to end de minimis for China. The Latin definition of de minimis derives from a phrase that says "the law does not concern itself with trifles." The US de minimis exemption is no longer a trifling matter. The exemption is a crucial support for global trade and must remain, but not as a loophole for unchecked exploitation particularly for fentanyl trafficking and by Chinese e-commerce aggregation, Merle Hinrich, Chairman of the Hinrich Foundation, writes in an op-ed.
For four years now, China has been in a deepening economic slump, its longest funk since the global financial crisis. The government has thrown everything but the kitchen sink: More than US$100 billion in new loans, orders to soak up excess capacity in mired property markets, deep cuts in policy rates. Nothing has worked. As Senior Research Fellow Stewart Paterson writes, the slowdown is starting to look a lot like Japan’s ‘lost decade’ of economic stagnation that haunted the world’s third-largest economy into the 2010s. What Paterson found in his analysis of the true extent of risk is a degree of decline in the efficiency of Chinese investment now so dangerously deep that it threatens a full-fledged crisis.
Things that transshipment ports really need to know about security
Eugene Lim 4 February 2025
Transshipment hubs have long played a pivotal role in facilitating international trade. However, that role is increasingly under pressure as the US-China contest means tit-for-tat trade controls. Transshipment hubs, including Singapore which is the world’s largest, really need to know a few things if they mean to evade the crossfire and remain effective facilitators in the global trading system, longtime trade attorney Eugene Lim, founding principal of Taxise Asia, writes.
The Hinrich-IMD Sustainable Trade Index evaluates the ability of 30 global trading economies to engage sustainably in trade using 72 indicators. The 2024 iteration emphasizes the need for building resilience in trade, human, and natural resources amid global trade fragmentation and highlights the significant strides some trading nations have made toward sustainable trade. See how the index can be used for business and policy decision-making.
International trade is at a crossroads, with rising protectionism and geopolitical tensions reshaping the global landscape. The Trump administration's policies have the potential to further disrupt markets and challenge economic stability. Join us at our Trade Outlook 2025 for a discussion featuring Nathan Bush, Partner at DLA Piper, Ethan Wu, Asia Correspondent at The Economist, and Deborah Elms, Head of Trade Policy at the Hinrich Foundation, as they delve into the key challenges and trends redefining the future of trade in the Asia-Pacific.
Unlocking digital potential in the UK-Singapore Digital Economy Partnership
The Hinrich Foundation and the British Chamber of Commerce, with the support of the British High Commission in Singapore, co-organized a roundtable to explore digital trade between the UK and Singapore. This forum provided an opportunity for government and business stakeholders to engage on the UK-Singapore Digital Economy Agreement. Catch up on some snaps.
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