As Xi Jinping kicks off a three-day visit to Russia, playing the roles of both peace broker and Vladimir Putin’s “good old friend”, Beijing finds itself in the sweet spot of making trade and geopolitical gains in its relationship with Russia while boosting its global influence whatever the outcome of the Ukraine war, Emily de la Bruyère and Nate Picarsic write. As Beijing publicly toys with using its near-monopoly of global solar panel manufacturing to restrict exports, MERICS’ Nis Grünberg evaluates the impact on global trade. See what we are reading after China's "Two Sessions". Plus, our Research Fellow Kati Suominen speaks on digital trade at South China Morning Post annual China conference.
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See who’s winning the Ukraine war
Emily de la Bruyère
Nathan Picarsic
21 March 2023
Xi Jinping is in Moscow this week playing global peacemaker. Whatever the outcome of the Ukraine war, one winner is emerging: China stands to benefit disproportionately from Russia’s invasion and the West’s response. It’s buying shiploads of Russian oil and other commodities, turning Russia willingly beholden to Beijing. The war is keeping the West embroiled in protracted conflict, and China has managed to maintain diplomatic and commercial ties with the countries leading the effort to punish Moscow. Who gains most from “friendship without limits”? Emily de la Bruyère and Nathan Picarsic at Horizon Advisory ask.
China in recent months published a proposal to introduce export controls and bans on more than 100 technologies, including silicon wafers processing technology, key to producing solar panels. For an economy that produces some 80% of the world’s solar panels, the threat puts the West and the world’s Net Zero ambitions in a bind: cut out Chinese green tech too quickly and set back decarbonization, or accommodate Beijing’s interests in this latest trade weaponization threat, Nis Grünberg and François Chimits at MERICS write.
China’s policy reorientations and their impact on trade and tech
China convened the “two sessions” announcing policy reorientations. What will this mean for trade, investment, and competition over technology? Where is the CPTPP headed now? Is the world deglobalizing or reglobalizing? Our reading list covers the latest developments in global trade.
See you at SCMP’s China Conference: Southeast Asia 2023
Hong Kong’s leading English-language daily South China Morning Post holds its annual China Conference: Southeast Asia in Singapore in a week’s time. US-China relations, digital currencies, China’s super-apps, Net Zero, livability in Asia, and more are on the agenda. Our Research Fellow Kati Suominen speaks on March 29 on a panel on Asian supply chains.
Complimentary tickets for virtual attendance (valued at US$50) are available for Hinrich Foundation readers. Register now before they’re gone.
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