A dramatic U-turn on tariffs, engineered over a furious weekend of negotiations between the US and China, may appear to be a return to the status quo. It is not. Instead, it illustrates the consequences of rapid, unanticipated policy shifts with real economic consequences. Deborah Elms unpacks the 90-day reprieve and the big questions it demands. Germany’s economic relationship with China has reached an inflection point. At the heart of Germany’s China dilemma is a convergence of three complications: German companies now compete with China throughout the value chain, yet China is a key German export market, and global geopolitics especially in Germany’s transatlantic alliance bedevil Germany’s choices, Max Zenglein and Mikko Huotari write. In India, a resurgence in industrial policy and a gravitation toward the US are coinciding with Indian national security priorities that are driving New Delhi simultaneously to China, Akhil Ramesh writes. At a time when the public’s understanding of international trade has never been more urgent, the US National Press Foundation is partnering with the Hinrich Foundation to host 25 journalists to our annual International Trade Reporting Fellowship in Singapore in June. Plus, our guide on China Shock and Trump 2.0 in ASEAN.
US-CHINA TRADE
Ninety days from now
Deborah Elms 13 May 2025
A dramatic U-turn on tariffs, engineered over a furious weekend of negotiations between the US and China, may appear to be a return to the status quo. It is not. Instead, it illustrates the consequences of rapid, unanticipated policy shifts with real economic consequences. The Hinrich Foundation’s Head of Trade Policy Deborah Elms unpacks the 90-day reprieve and the big questions it demands.
Germany’s economic relationship with China has reached an inflection point. Chinese companies now compete with Germany up and down the value chain, yet China remains a key German export market. The weakening transatlantic alliance poses deep new risks for Germany and it is this complication that poses perhaps the most vexing questions for Germany’s future, China-focused think tank MERICS Executive Director Mikko Huotari and MERICS Chief Economist Max Zenglein write in a special paper for the Hinrich Foundation.
“Make in India” increasingly means “Made in China”
Akhil Ramesh 13 May 2025
Over the last decade, the overlap between trade and national security has become acute. A case in point is India, where a resurgence in industrial policy and a gravitation toward the US in trade negotiations are coinciding with national security priorities that are driving New Delhi toward a growing economic relationship with China, Pacific Forum’s India and Economic Statecraft Director Akhil Ramesh writes.
The US National Press Foundation is partnering with the Hinrich Foundation to host 25 journalists to our International Trade Reporting Fellowship in Singapore in June. This year’s fellowship includes reporters and editors from more than a dozen countries across Asia. The annual workshops examine the latest trends in covering global trade, at a time when the public’s understanding of the economic implications inherent in international trade has never been more urgent. Watch this space for updates.
With its traditional economic engines sputtering, Beijing has pivoted its export machine sharply toward manufacturing to maintain growth. Colossal Chinese overcapacity is now inimical to most of the rest of the world's industrial ambitions, not least in ASEAN. Southeast Asia is experiencing its version of a 'China Shock', even as the sword of Trump’s tariffs hangs over the region. Read more in this discussion guide based on a paper by Henry Storey.
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