Donald Trump next week will unleash the largest sweep of his trade policy agenda yet, when his reciprocal tariff agenda goes global. What Trump calls “Liberation Day” will be an important turning point in history, marking the broadest reversal by the US away from the global economic integration that America itself led in the last 80 years. Deborah Elms sets out how Trump plans his “liberation” of America from friend and foe alike. American views of China have swung from overestimation to underestimation, but seldom get it right on Chinese tech innovation, Craig Allen says. We republish a keynote speech Allen delivered at Stanford University last year on how Chinese policy, history, and culture influence where China is surging ahead on tech competition with the US. Allen, then-President of the US-China Business Council, sizes up China’s weaknesses, evaluates the American response, and comes to a nuanced conclusion. In an analysis of 30 economies covered under the Hinrich-IMD Sustainable Trade Index 2024, Jia Hui Tee finds that countries survive protectionism when they invest in trade infrastructure, engage in multilateral initiatives, and diversify trade partnerships. Plus, register here for the Chatham House Global Trade 2025 conference featuring Keith Rockwell, and see what we have been reading on critical minerals and reciprocal tariffs.
TRADE POLICY
The global trade war starts April 2
Deborah Elms 25 March 2025
Donald Trump next week will unleash the largest sweep of his trade policy agenda yet, when his reciprocal tariff agenda goes global. What Trump calls “Liberation Day” will be an important turning point in history, marking the broadest reversal in the last 80 years of principles and measures that the US has undertaken to nurture global economic integration, our Trade Policy Head Deborah Elms writes. In its place will be Trump’s vision of America First, a “liberation” for America from friend and foe alike who have, the President says, ripped the country off for years. Whether it will work is almost besides the point.
“The Greatest Show on Earth”: The US-China tech competition
Craig Allen 25 March 2025
Craig Allen, then-President of the US-China Business Council, addressed Stanford University’s Center on China’s Economy last year in a wide-ranging keynote on the US-China tech competition. Allen’s speech, republished by the Hinrich Foundation with his kind permission, is a showcase of his nuanced understanding of China’s approach to technology, America’s misunderstanding of how China innovates, and the trade-offs in the tech denial strategy. His conclusion posits a winner in the contest, but only as a lament for what could have strengthened both nations under a set of strong and well-enforced rules.
How smaller economies can survive a protectionist era
Jia Hui Tee 25 March 2025
In navigating the rising protectionism of global trade, smaller economies must innovate to thrive, Senior Trade Policy Analyst Jia Hui Tee writes. In an analysis of 30 economies covered under the Hinrich-IMD Sustainable Trade Index 2024, Tee finds that countries hone their survival edge when they invest in trade infrastructure, leverage tech advancements, and diversify trade partnerships.
Critical minerals, April 2 tariffs, and US strategy
Critical minerals, including rare earths, are essential for today’s cutting-edge technologies and future innovations. How are governments ensuring access to these materials, and are Trump’s statements on Greenland and Canada and negotiations with Ukraine driven by access to critical minerals? Meanwhile, with the April 2 tariff deadline approaching, his push for high tariffs sparks debate over their effectiveness, legal basis, and potential expansion to capital flows. Check out what we’ve been reading.
Global trade is at a turning point, with geopolitical changes, trade wars, and outdated policies reshaping the landscape. Join our Senior Research Fellow Keith Rockwell at the 2025 Chatham House Conference for a panel on the fragmentation of global trade. Key topics of discussion include geopolitical risks, WTO reform, and strategies for economic resilience.
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