As a large swathe of Asian and other economies including longtime US allies, key among them Japan, reel from a wave of Donald Trump’s letters overnight threatening punishing tariff hikes should they fail to come to terms with America by August, markets are bracing for another escalation into uncertainty. Watch this space as we size up how the dust settles. Meanwhile, in this week’s Hinrich Thought Leadership:
The National Press Foundation is hosting a webinar featuring Deborah Elms and veteran Washington Post trade journalist David Lynch to examine the tariff policies pursued in the first six months of the Trump administration.
Ending decades of relative decline in US manufacturing would reduce global trade tensions and reverse the decline in US productivity growth – but it might also take 10 years under the current administration’s policies, Stewart Paterson writes. Securing supplies from like-minded allies would stand a far higher chance of success, he says.
China is now, in some ways, in a position the West once occupied. In sectors like EVs and batteries, China’s domination and need to offshore production now give Western companies an opening to grab Chinese engineering and software expertise even as Beijing tries to keep as much value and jobs onshore as possible whilst minimizing technology leakage, Henry Storey writes.
The Trump tariff strategy report card – six months in
No period in recent history has upended international markets, supply chains, corporate investment, and labor more than the tariff policies pursued in the first six months of the second Trump administration. To take stock of the administration’s strategy, the National Press Foundation, sponsored by the Hinrich Foundation, will host a webinar featuring Deborah Elms, Head of Trade Policy of the Hinrich Foundation, and David Lynch, Global Economics Correspondent of The Washington Post. Register here now.
Ending decades of relative decline in US manufacturing is not something that can be reversed easily or in a short space of time. If the goal of the Trump administration is to put US manufacturing back on par with where it was before the “China Shock,” the arithmetic looks challenging, our Senior Research Fellow Stewart Paterson writes. It would reduce trade tensions and reverse the decline in US productivity growth – but it might also take 10 years. A less ambitious goal of securing supplies from like-minded allies would stand a far higher chance of success, Paterson writes.
China’s offshoring drive bumps up against its own playbook
Henry Storey 8 July 2025
China is now, at times, in a position that the West once occupied. In sectors like EVs and batteries, China’s domination and need to offshore some production have given Western, and especially European, companies an unprecedented position of tapping into Chinese engineering and software expertise. Beijing wants to keep as much value and jobs onshore as possible, whilst minimizing technology leakage. Its global rivals want more of the value chain for themselves. Henry Storey explores how the tables may slowly turn.
Highlights from the International Trade Fellowship 2025
The National Press Foundation and the Hinrich Foundation just concluded our joint 2025 International Trade Fellowship, hosting 25 Asia-based journalists for sessions on themes covering global trade policy, the age of data, the macroeconomic outlook, and Asia’s place in a fast-changing world order. Catch up on recaps of this year’s panels here. This week, we have:
Trump's tariff policies have exposed the WTO's dysfunction, highlighting its rigid decision-making and failure to adapt to modern trade needs. Reform is essential for the WTO to remain relevant, but it requires multilateral consensus. Read more in this discussion guide based on a paper by Keith M. Rockwell, Senior Research Fellow at the Hinrich Foundation.
